The Great Compression: Q3 2025
The definitive Q3 2025 Funding Report for Indonesian startups. Comprehensive analysis of the stabilization period, including the Amazon-Astro deal breakdown, the new governance checklist post-Investree, and the Japanese capital surge.
Executive Summary: Q3 2025 was a turning point. Funding is still far below the 2021 peak, but the quarter delivered clear signs of stabilization: Amazon’s first direct investment in an Indonesian startup, renewed US institutional interest, and a continued surge of Japanese capital. At the same time, the governance shock from Investree is forcing a structural reset in how deals are done.
01. Quarter at a Glance
02. Where Capital Flowed
Two deals—Astro and Yup—accounted for roughly 60% of all equity capital deployed, underlining how concentrated growth capital has become.
Remained #1 by capital (~$60M). However, capital strictly flowed to Infrastructure (OY!) and Digital Banking (Yup). P2P lending remained largely uninvestable following the Investree collapse.
Indonesia accounted for 67% of all Southeast Asian climate tech funding in 2025. Q3 deals included Sirsak (Waste) and Waterhub (Clean Water).
Amazon's first direct investment in Indonesia (Astro) validated the quick-commerce model, despite global headwinds.
03. Who is Deploying?
Foreign Capital Trends
- › Japan: Most consistent source. MUFG (Garuda), Genesia (27 deals!), Tokio Marine.
- › Korea: Emerging force. SV Investment's $100M fund with East Ventures.
- › USA: Cautious return. Moore Strategic Ventures & Amazon.
Governance Shock
The New Normal: The Investree arrest and eFishery investigation have doubled due diligence timelines. Investors now demand forensic financial audits and background checks on founders before Term Sheets.
04. Macro Backdrop
The macro environment is surprisingly supportive for risk assets. Bank Indonesia cut rates three times in Q3, bringing the BI Rate to 4.75%—the lowest since Oct 2022.
| Indicator | Value (Q3 End) | Impact on Venture |
|---|---|---|
| BI Rate | 4.75% | Lower cost of capital for debt facilities. |
| GDP Growth | 5.12% | Fastest in two years. Strong domestic consumption. |
| Inflation | 2.65% | Contained within target. Supports consumer spending. |
Outlook for 2026
"Indonesia is moving from crisis to early stabilization. The most realistic scenario is a gradual recovery toward $600M annual funding. For patient capital, this remains Southeast Asia’s most compelling long-term market."
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