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///LATE STAGE • Sociolla • US$ 250M • Commerce///POLICY • Gold Export Duties: Progressive Reference-Price Ladder Kicks In///SERIES A • Hangry • US$ 10.5M • F&B///POLICY • Coal Export Tax 2026: Indonesia Signals a New Resource-Rent Phase///SERIES B • Honest • Undisclosed • Fintech///POLICY • Export FX Repatriation: Proceeds Routed Through State Banks From 2026///SEED • Arummi Foods • US$ 2M • F&B///POLICY • OJK POJK 4/2025: Financial Aggregators Move Into a Licensing Regime///PRE-SEED • IDRX • US$ 300k • Web3///POLICY • Finfluencer Rules: OJK Tightens Conduct Around Securities Marketing///SERIES C • Yup • US$ 32M • Fintech///POLICY • Dormant Accounts: New Standardization Changes Bank Data and Ops///LATE STAGE • Sociolla • US$ 250M • Commerce///POLICY • Gold Export Duties: Progressive Reference-Price Ladder Kicks In///SERIES A • Hangry • US$ 10.5M • F&B///POLICY • Coal Export Tax 2026: Indonesia Signals a New Resource-Rent Phase///SERIES B • Honest • Undisclosed • Fintech///POLICY • Export FX Repatriation: Proceeds Routed Through State Banks From 2026///SEED • Arummi Foods • US$ 2M • F&B///POLICY • OJK POJK 4/2025: Financial Aggregators Move Into a Licensing Regime///PRE-SEED • IDRX • US$ 300k • Web3///POLICY • Finfluencer Rules: OJK Tightens Conduct Around Securities Marketing///SERIES C • Yup • US$ 32M • Fintech///POLICY • Dormant Accounts: New Standardization Changes Bank Data and Ops
Market Note
Oct 2025
9 min read

The Real Economy Rotation

Why capital is fleeing B2C E-commerce for EV, Supply Chain, and Industrial Tech.

Analyst Note: For a decade (2012-2022), the Indonesian venture thesis was simple: "Digitize the Consumer." E-commerce, ride-hailing, and OTA took the lion's share of capital. That trade is crowded. In 2025, the smart money is rotating into the "Real Economy"—Electric Vehicles, Supply Chain, and B2B Infrastructure. However, 2024-2025 has delivered harsh lessons: the eFishery scandal (per reported investigation findings showing a ~$600M revenue gap), the collapse of Pitik, Bukalapak's exit from the physical goods marketplace, and the evaporation of multiple unicorn valuations have forced a fundamental reckoning on governance, unit economics, and the "growth at all costs" mentality.

The Great Rotation

Yesterday (2015-2021)

B2C / Consumer

Quick Commerce, Marketplaces, D2C Brands, Super Apps, OTA

Today (2025-2030)

B2B / Industrial

EV Supply Chain, Fintech Infra, Agritech, B2B Commerce, Logistics

01. The Macro Context: A Brutal Funding Environment

Before diving into sector dynamics, it's critical to understand the macro context. Indonesia's startup ecosystem is experiencing its most severe funding drought in over half a decade. The era of cheap capital is effectively over. ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) ended, global LPs pulled back from emerging markets, and local investors became dramatically more selective.

The Funding Reality Check

-43.5%

Indonesia YoY

H1 2025 vs H1 2024

~$160M

Total Funding

H1 2025 (~35 deals)

Multi-Year

Low Point

Southeast Asia (SEA) Q4 2024 (reported)

$4.56B

SEA Full-Year 2024

-41.7% YoY

Source: compiled from multiple reported datasets (DailySocial.id, DealStreetAsia, aggregated databases e.g. Tracxn, Crunchbase). Methods differ; treat figures as directional unless citing a single primary report edition.

The decline is even starker when measured from the 2021 peak. Reported Southeast Asia startup funding in 2024 ($4.56B) represents only ~19.5% of the 2021 peak (~$23.4B). Indonesia, which once commanded 30-40% of regional deal flow, has seen its share erode as Singapore-based companies (with cleaner governance and easier exits) attracted more capital.

The Unicorn Graveyard

Indonesia's unicorns—once the pride of Southeast Asia's tech ecosystem—have fallen hard. The decacorn dream has evaporated for most. Market caps have collapsed, founders have departed, and some companies have pivoted beyond recognition.

Company Peak Valuation Status (approx. late 2025) What Happened
GoTo Group $28B (IPO 2022) Down >80% from IPO (approx.) Stock down significantly from IPO. TikTok (ByteDance) reportedly took a 75.01% stake in Tokopedia via a JV for $840M (Dec 2023), with $1.5B+ reported committed investment. Multiple rounds of layoffs. Grab merger discussions reported.
Bukalapak $7.6B (IPO 2021) Pivoting (market cap down ~90%) Reported to have stopped physical goods marketplace (Feb 2025), pivoting to virtual products (pulsa, data packages, bill payments). Reported continued losses. Strategic investors reportedly reviewing positions.
Traveloka $3B (2017) Singapore-incorporated Large Indonesia footprint; corporate structure in Singapore (Traveloka Pte Ltd) widely reported. Survived COVID pivot. Now focused on fintech (paylater, insurance).
eFishery $1.4B (2023) Under investigation Reported ~$600M revenue discrepancy discovered Dec 2024 (per FTI Consulting audit). Founders removed. Investors reportedly exploring options including liquidation.
J&T Express ~$11.6B (IPO 2023, reported) Listed HK (Oct 2023) Listed in Hong Kong (Oct 2023). Shares reportedly traded at a discount post-listing. Profitable, but margins compressed; facing Shopee Xpress competition.
Blibli $3.4B (IPO 2022) Market cap stable/up post-IPO Exception: outperforming peers. Djarum Group backing. Omnichannel strategy with Tiket.com.

Note: Valuations and status are estimates based on public reporting as of late 2025. Market caps fluctuate; verify current figures before investment decisions.

"At the end of the day, [GoTo] is still a Rp 60-70 trillion company. It's not a decacorn now, but it will go back to being one eventually. The recent market correction, while intense, was deemed healthy and ultimately beneficial for the industry." — Fandy Santoso, Treasurer, Amvesindo (Venture Capital Association)

Secondary Liquidity Surge

With IPO and M&A exits limited, Indonesia's startup landscape is reportedly seeing increased secondary share transactions. Selected reported cases include:

  • Kopi Kenangan: Peak XV Partners reportedly exploring stake sale after other investor exits
  • • Multiple B2B commerce and fintech startups reportedly completing share buybacks or down rounds

These secondary transactions highlight growing pressure on early investors to secure liquidity, even at discounted valuations. Specific deal terms are often not publicly disclosed.

02. The Death of "Subsidized Growth"

The B2C model relied on CAC Arbitrage: raising VC money to subsidize shipping and promos to acquire users, hoping they stick. This worked when capital was cheap and plentiful (ZIRP era, 2015-2021). The playbook was simple: show hockey-stick GMV growth, raise at 3-5x valuation, repeat until IPO.

Inflation and the end of the ZIRP era broke this model. Indonesian consumers are incredibly price-sensitive—when subsidies stop, they churn. The 2024 funding data suggests this model is no longer fundable. Investors increasingly demand unit economics at Seed stage and a clear path to profitability by Series A.

The Old Playbook (Broken)
  • • Raise $50-100M Series B/C
  • • Subsidize delivery, promos, discounts
  • • Acquire users at any cost
  • • Show hockey-stick GMV growth
  • • Raise next round at 3-5x valuation
  • • Repeat until IPO or acquisition
  • • "We'll figure out monetization later"
The New Reality
  • • Demonstrate unit economics at Seed
  • • Path to profitability required Series A+
  • • Gross margin scrutiny from Day 1
  • • Working capital efficiency is key
  • • Down rounds are the new normal
  • • Forensic due diligence post-eFishery
  • • Revenue quality > Revenue quantity
"We spent $50M subsidizing delivery fees. When we turned it off, GMV dropped 40% overnight. We realized we hadn't built loyalty; we had just bought temporary transaction volume." — Anonymous Ex-Unicorn Founder

What Investors Want Now

Per Integra Partners (Jan 2025): "Founders must now refocus on strong fundamentals—cutting burn rates, improving unit economics, and building credible paths to profitability. Investors are shifting from 'growth-at-all-costs' to 'risk-adjusted scalability,' demanding transparency, stronger governance, and more collaborative engagement."

The Asian Development Bank forecasts 4.7% GDP expansion for the region in 2025 (up from 4.3% in 2023). Nomura anticipates ASEAN-5 growth of 4.5% in 2024. The macro story is fine—it's the startup funding mechanics that have fundamentally shifted.

Key sectors attracting capital: SaaS, logistics, agri-supply chains—businesses with real margins, not GMV vanity metrics. B2B is favored over B2C. Hard assets over pure software plays.

The B2B E-Commerce Thesis

While B2C e-commerce struggles (Shopee vs. TikTok Shop price wars destroying margins), some forecasts project B2B e-commerce could reach ~$30B by 2025 in Indonesia.

Forecasts vary widely by methodology; treat as directional unless sourced to a single primary report.

The FMCG supply chain is massive: 20,000+ wholesalers, millions of warungs (small shops), highly fragmented. A study by CELIOS and GudangAda found that 60% of MSMEs in Indonesia have benefited from digitalization.

GudangAda (reported $135M+ raised) connects principals → distributors → wholesalers → retailers. Asset-light model (partners with 3P logistics). Covered 500 cities, claimed $6B NMV. Like many B2B players, the company has reportedly faced profitability challenges amid the funding downturn.

Other players: Ula, Ralali, Mbiz, Bizzy Group. Key opportunity: digitize traditional trade (still 70%+ of FMCG sales), add working capital financing using transaction data, capture embedded finance margins.

03. The Breakout: EV & Downstream Nickel

This is the clearest sector with massive Regulatory Tailwinds. The Indonesian government has made becoming a global EV battery hub a national priority (Hilirisasi—downstream processing). Indonesia has become a critical supplier in the global nickel value chain, with reporting citing the country as holding a significant share of global reserves—the key ingredient for NMC batteries that power Tesla, BYD, and most high-performance EVs.

The strategy: ban raw nickel ore exports (since 2020), force foreign companies to process locally, capture value from mining to battery to vehicle. The EU filed a WTO complaint, but Indonesia held firm. The result: nickel export earnings reportedly grew by multiples over 2019-2022 levels. Indonesia now reportedly supplies a very large share of the world's refined nickel in key segments.

EV Market Momentum (Reported)

EV adoption has been a meaningful tailwind for Indonesia's auto market, with EV sales growth cited as a driver of the first YoY monthly rebound in early 2025. Total 2024 car sales were reported at ~865,000 units, and Chinese brands have rapidly gained BEV market share. Electric motorcycle adoption is also accelerating, with multiple reports citing six-figure annual sales.

Source: Reuters (GAIKINDO-cited reporting), industry estimates. Metrics vary across sources (GAIKINDO, OEM disclosures, media estimates); treat as directional.

Government Subsidy Framework

The Indonesian government has deployed a comprehensive subsidy framework to accelerate EV adoption. This is not just aspirational policy—it's backed by real fiscal incentives that change unit economics for consumers and manufacturers.

Consumer Incentives
  • Rp 7 Million (~$435) per e-motorcycle subsidy
  • VAT reduced 11% → 1% for EVs with ≥40% local content (TKDN)
  • 0% import duty on CBU/CKD for manufacturers committing to local factories by 2026
  • 15% luxury tax exemption (PPnBM DTP) for battery EVs
  • • Provincial incentives: Jakarta waives transfer tax (BBN-KB) for EVs
2030 National Targets
  • 13 million electric motorcycles
  • 2 million electric cars
  • 600,000 locally produced EVs annually
  • 140 GWh battery production capacity
  • Top 3 global EV battery producer by 2027
  • Carbon neutral transportation by 2060

The Battery Industrial Complex

The real action is in batteries, not vehicles. Indonesia is building an integrated nickel-to-battery supply chain with tens of billions in foreign investment. The Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC), a state-owned consortium, coordinates domestic battery industry development.

Project Investment Capacity / Scope Status
CATL Indonesia Battery Integration $6 Billion 6.9 GWh initial → 15 GWh → 40 GWh. Full value chain: nickel mining, processing, battery materials, cell manufacturing, recycling. Groundbreaking June 2025 in Karawang, West Java. Target operations 2026-2027 (phased, per reporting). CATL reportedly holds 60-70% controlling stake.
Hyundai-LG Energy Solution (HLI Green Power) $1.1 Billion 10 GWh (powers ~150,000 EVs/year). NCMA battery cells with 90% nickel cathodes. Commissioned early 2024. Operational. Supplies Hyundai and Kia Indonesia.
BYD Indonesia Factory $1 Billion EV production facility (full manufacturing, not just assembly) Targeting completion 2025. Part of BYD's SEA expansion (also Thailand).
VinFast Subang Plant >$1 Billion total Phase 1: 50,000 vehicles/year ($300M+). Scalable to 350,000 vehicles/year. 171-hectare site. Inaugurated Dec 15, 2025—just 17 months from groundbreaking. V-Green charging network deploying.
REPT Battero Gigafactory $139.5 Million 8 GWh (focused on BESS/energy storage applications) Announced January 2025. Chinese Li-ion manufacturer expanding to Indonesia.
BTR Anode Plant $478 Million Anode materials for EV batteries Inaugurated August 2024. BTR New Material Group (China) + Stellar Investment.
Wuling Battery Pack Assembly Battery pack assembly for EVs (localization initiative) Commenced January 2025. Advancing TKDN compliance.

The Nickel Supply Chain

Indonesia's nickel-to-battery value chain is being built in integrated industrial parks:

  • Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP): Chinese-backed hub for nickel smelting and HPAL processing. Tsingshan Holding Group invested $15B+.
  • Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park: Major nickel processing hub in North Maluku. Multiple HPAL facilities producing battery-grade nickel sulfate.
  • FHT Industrial Park (East Halmahera): CATL project location. 2,000+ hectares for integrated battery value chain.
  • Bekasi-Karawang-Purwakarta Corridor: West Java automotive cluster. HLI Green Power, CATL cell factory, Hyundai EV plant.

West Java Province received $8.3B in FDI in 2023—the highest in Indonesia. The concentration of EV manufacturing creates a self-reinforcing ecosystem.

EV Startup Ecosystem

Beyond the mega-factory investments from foreign OEMs, a local startup ecosystem is emerging to address EV adoption challenges—particularly in the dominant two-wheeler segment.

Company Focus Total Funding Key Details
Maka Motors E-Motorcycle Manufacturing $37.6M Seed One of SEA's largest seed rounds. In-house R&D (not CKD imports). Factory in West Java. Founded by ex-Gojek team. Investors: AC Ventures, Peak XV (Sequoia), East Ventures, Northstar, SV Investment.
Swap Energy Battery Swap Infrastructure $36.5M Total $22M Series A (Jan 2024, led by Qiming Ventures). 1,300+ battery swap stations across 14 provinces. Investors: GGV Capital, Ondine Capital. Smoot Motor is their motorcycle brand.
Smoot Motor E-Motorcycle Brand (Swap subsidiary) Partners with Grab, PLN (state utility), Gojek for ride-hailing EV transition. Hardware + swap network integration.
Xanh SM (VinFast) Electric Taxi Fleet VinFast's electric taxi service. Partnered with Gojek in June 2025. Operating in Jakarta.

Update (Dec 15, 2025): VinFast inaugurated its Subang, West Java factory—just 17 months after groundbreaking. Phase 1 capacity: 50,000 vehicles/year, expandable to 350,000 vehicles/year. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reportedly attended. Xanh SM electric taxi service partnered with Gojek in June 2025. VinFast is deploying its own V-Green charging network across Indonesia.

Key Insight: The E-Motorcycle Opportunity

Industry estimates suggest Indonesia has ~132 million motorcycles—the world's third-largest market after China and India. Current EV penetration is reported at around ~0.2%. Annual motorcycle sales are estimated to exceed 6 million units. The government target is 13 million e-motorcycles by 2030.

Unlike cars, e-motorcycles are TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) positive today with subsidies. Swap Energy reports pricing of Rp 17,000 (~$1.14) per 100 km—roughly half the cost of petrol. For ride-hailing drivers doing 50-100 km/day, the economics are already compelling without any behavioral change sacrifice.

Challenge: Chinese imports (as CKD kits) dominate the affordable segment but don't meet Indonesian rider needs—insufficient power to overtake cars in mixed traffic, inadequate range for Indonesian commute distances, not designed for carrying adult passengers. This is exactly what Maka Motors is solving with in-house R&D.

Risk Factor: LFP vs. NMC Chemistry

Indonesia's battery strategy is built on nickel-rich NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) chemistry. However, LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries contain no nickel and are gaining market share due to lower costs and better safety profiles.

LFP now dominates budget and standard-range EV segments globally. While high-performance EVs still favor NMC/NCA, LFP's expansion represents strategic risk for Indonesia's nickel-centric thesis. The country must ensure cost-competitive production while improving ESG credentials to satisfy IRA and EU Battery Regulation requirements.

04. Fintech: Infrastructure Over Wallets

The "E-Wallet War" (GoPay vs. OVO vs. Dana vs. ShopeePay vs. LinkAja) is over. They all won market share, and they all lost on margins. The consumer fintech space is saturated and commoditized. Wallets often became a loss leader for acquiring users into broader ecosystems, not standalone businesses.

The new money is flowing into Picks and Shovels—the infrastructure layer that powers all fintech. Key players in Indonesia's open banking infrastructure have raised $70M+ combined. The Indonesian Payment System Blueprint 2025 (BSPI 2025) and SNAP (Standar Nasional Open API Pembayaran) national standard have opened new regulatory runway for innovation.

The Open Finance Stack

  • Layer 1: Open Finance / API Aggregation

    Connecting banks to apps. Since Indonesian banks are technologically slow (legacy core banking systems), middleware layers are essential for any fintech product to access bank data and initiate payments.

    Players: Ayoconnect ($46.5M raised, one of few players publicly cited as holding relevant BI licensing, direct debit with major banks), Brankas (SEA-wide, API-driven, raised $50M+), Brick (identity verification focus, raised $10M+), Finantier (credit scoring, data aggregation)

  • Layer 2: Embedded Finance

    Offering lending, insurance, and financial services inside non-finance apps. Low CAC (customer already in-app), high data visibility (transaction history = credit scoring). This is where the margin capture happens.

    Example: Working capital for farmers inside an agritech app (loan approval based on harvest data, not traditional credit scores). Buy-now-pay-later inside e-commerce checkout. Invoice financing inside B2B platforms.

  • Layer 3: Payment Infrastructure

    Payment gateways, disbursements, virtual accounts, QR payments. The plumbing that moves money between banks, wallets, and merchants.

    Players: Xendit ($538M raised, 200M+ annualized transactions), Midtrans (GoTo ecosystem), DOKU (legacy player), Fazz/Xfers (Singapore-Indonesia corridor)

  • Layer 4: Collection Tech & Credit Infrastructure

    With NPLs rising post-COVID, tech that helps companies collect debts (ethically and efficiently) is booming. Also credit scoring, fraud detection, and identity verification.

    Context: P2P lending NPL rates spiked during COVID. OJK imposed new rate caps in 2024 (tiered by loan type and tenor)—squeezing lender margins and making collection efficiency critical.

Key Development (2025): Ayoconnect reportedly secured new funding led by Finch Capital, targeting break-even in coming quarters. The company holds a BI Payment Service Provider license (one of few open finance players with this credential) and offers direct debit integration with major Indonesian banks including Mandiri, BRI, BNI, and others. It's proving the infrastructure play can reach profitability—unlike many consumer fintech models that burned through billions.

Company Layer Total Raised Key Differentiator
Xendit Payment Infrastructure $538M Market leader. 200M+ transactions/year. API-first. SEA expansion (PH, MY, TH).
Ayoconnect Open Finance $46.5M One of few open finance players with relevant BI licensing. Direct debit with major banks. Targeting break-even.
Brankas Open Finance $50M+ SEA-wide coverage. API platform for banks and fintechs. Acquired Ayannah.
Kredivo BNPL / Consumer Credit $660M+ Largest BNPL in Indonesia. Unicorn status. SPAC listing attempt (2021) was cancelled due to market conditions; company remains private.
AwanTunai Embedded Finance / SME Lending $30M+ Working capital for FMCG supply chain. Partners with distributors.

05. Agritech: The Reckoning

Agritech was supposed to be Indonesia's next big thing. Agriculture represents 13% of GDP, employs 30% of the workforce, yet remains essentially 0% digitized. The thesis was compelling: bring technology to farmers, improve yields, reduce waste, capture massive value.

Then reality hit. The poster child became a cautionary tale. And the sector has been forced into a painful reckoning.

The eFishery Scandal: A Case Study in Governance Failure

eFishery was the poster child of Indonesian agritech—using smart feeders and data to improve aquaculture productivity. It reached unicorn status in 2023 with a reported $1.4B valuation and $294M raised from SoftBank, Temasek, G42, Northstar, and 500 Global. The founder, Gibran Huzaifah, was a media darling promoting technology for rural development.

Source: FTI Consulting investigation findings, as reported by Bloomberg, Business Times, and other financial media (Dec 2024–Apr 2025).

Reported Claimed Revenue (Jan-Sep 2024)

$752M

Reported Actual Revenue

$157M

Reported Discrepancy

~$600M (~75%)

Reported Claimed Profit

$16M

Reported Actual Result

-$35.4M loss

Reported Retained Losses

$152M

Reported Claimed Feeders

400,000 units

Reported Actual Count

~24,000 units

Alleged Duration

Since 2018

How it allegedly worked: Reported allegations include dual sets of numbers (external vs internal records) and inflated operational metrics. The Bloomberg interview with the founder suggests the discrepancies may have begun as early as 2018.

How it was discovered: A whistleblower reportedly alerted a board member in December 2024. FTI Consulting was engaged to investigate. PwC and Grant Thornton were reported to have provided audit/assurance services over multiple years.

Aftermath: Both founders were removed from the company. The interim CEO subsequently resigned. Investors are reportedly evaluating options including potential liquidation or restructuring. Legal proceedings may follow under Indonesian law.

"[eFishery] was supposed to be reflective of what the local ecosystem could do, what Indonesian founders could do. This was supposed to be one of the better companies from Southeast Asia. This was supposed to be a winner." — Justin Hall, Partner, Golden Gate Ventures
"They said they manipulated the numbers. They have some 'growth hacking initiatives' that they do and usually they do it before the fundraising." — Gibran Huzaifah, eFishery founder, in Bloomberg interview (April 2025)

The Poultry Tech Collapse

Pitik (raised $14M Series A in May 2022 from Alpha JWC, MDI Ventures, Wavemaker) was supposed to be the "eFishery of Poultry." It offered smart farming IoT, farm financing, and offtake services to chicken farmers.

Pitik: A Cautionary Tale

  • 2022: Raised $14M Series A from Alpha JWC, MDI Ventures, Wavemaker.
  • 2023-2024: Reportedly struggled with unit economics and failed to secure follow-on funding.
  • Early 2024: Multiple rounds of layoffs reported; tech team reportedly dismissed.
  • Mid-2024: Operations ceased. Website became inaccessible.

Note: Detailed financials not independently verified. Timeline based on industry reports.

The Survivor: Chickin

Chickin remains the lone standing poultry tech player. Unlike Pitik's aggressive expansion, Chickin focused on capital efficiency and multiple revenue streams:

  • $20M equity round (October 2024, led by Granite Asia)
  • Rp 250 billion ($15M) debt facility from Bank DBS Indonesia (January 2025)
  • Diversified model: Contract farming, IoT monitoring, farm financing, AND fresh/frozen chicken B2B sales to 200+ companies
Why Agritech Still Matters (Despite the Carnage)
1. TAM Agriculture is 13% of GDP but essentially 0% digitized.
2. Impact Directly improves rural livelihoods. Political cover for government support.
3. Export Shrimp/Fish generates USD revenue. Natural forex hedge.
"Many early movers (e.g., Techcoop, Chickin) are now leveraging the initial wedge to directly aggregate supply in a given product category—essentially becoming first-tier suppliers themselves." — Integra Partners, January 2025

06. Hard Lessons & The Path Forward

What the eFishery Scandal Teaches Us

  • 1.
    Standard due diligence failed

    eFishery was reportedly audited by PwC and Grant Thornton. Investors conducted channel checks and exit interviews. The fraud still wasn't caught until a whistleblower came forward after 7 years.

  • 2.
    "Hypergrowth" culture enabled fraud

    The pressure to show unicorn-worthy metrics led to systematic fabrication. The ecosystem's obsession with valuation milestones created perverse incentives.

  • 3.
    Whistleblowers are essential

    Per ACFE Report to the Nations 2024: 43% of fraud cases are uncovered by whistleblower tips—3x higher than internal audits (14%).

  • 4.
    Not an isolated case

    An investor source told Stratsea they know "at least two other major Indonesian startups that have manipulated accounts." KoinWorks subsidiary KoinP2P faced a ~$23M fraud case in 2024.

  • 5.
    The "unicorn or bust" mindset must die

    Building a profitable $100M business is better than a fraudulent $1B one.

What Needs to Change

For Founders
  • • Unit economics from Day 1
  • • Path to profitability before Series B
  • • Conservative revenue recognition
  • • Strong internal controls and governance
  • • Independent board members
  • • Whistleblower channels
For Investors
  • • Forensic due diligence (not just channel checks)
  • • Independent verification of operational claims
  • • Supply chain audits
  • • Anonymous employee interviews
  • • Demand audited financials earlier
  • • Bank statement verification

Revised Thesis

"Stop looking for the next TikTok. Start looking for the next Toyota. But verify it can actually build cars. The defining companies of this cycle will build hard assets, move physical goods, power the industrialization of the archipelago—AND demonstrate auditable, governance-compliant unit economics from Day 1."

The rotation from B2C to B2B/Industrial is real. The opportunity is massive. But the bar for execution and governance has been permanently raised.

What to Watch in 2025-2026

Bullish Signals
  • • CATL battery plant operational (target 2026-2027)
  • • VinFast production ramp-up
  • • E-motorcycle subsidy utilization rate
  • • Ayoconnect / Xendit profitability
  • • B2B commerce consolidation
  • • Chickin continued growth
Bearish Signals
  • • More fraud scandals emerging
  • • LFP batteries reducing nickel demand
  • • ESG concerns blocking Western investment
  • • GoTo-Grab merger fails
  • • Secondary transactions at steep discounts
  • • Continued unicorn valuation erosion

Sources & Data Verification

Funding & Market Data

  • • DailySocial.id H1 2025 Report
  • • Tracxn Indonesia Database
  • • CB Insights Company Profiles
  • • Crunchbase Funding Data

EV & Battery Data

  • • GAIKINDO Sales Statistics
  • • PwC Indonesia EV Report
  • • Ministry of Finance (Dirjen Pajak)
  • • CSIS Indonesia Battery Strategy Analysis

eFishery Scandal

  • • Bloomberg (FTI Consulting report)
  • • The Diplomat
  • • CNBC
  • • Kompas.id / Jakarta Post

Government & Policy

  • • BI Payment System Blueprint 2025
  • • IISD Indonesia EV Policy Analysis
  • • Ministry of Finance PMK Regulations
  • • ASEAN Briefing

Where possible, figures were cross-referenced against primary sources and reputable reporting. This insight does not constitute investment advice. Last updated: December 2025.

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