Intelligence Brief: Indonesia is attempting an infrastructure "two-for-one": solve urban waste and add dispatchable renewables. The national plan targets waste-to-energy facilities across 33 cities, requiring roughly IDR 91T in funding. The rollout is staged—pilot cities first—while central coordination attempts to de-risk feasibility, offtake, and delivery.
01. The Asset: A Waste Crisis With Energy Potential
The WtE program reframes waste as feedstock: controlled conversion, energy recovery, and reduced landfill pressure. In policy terms, it's a shift from "cleanup" to "productive infrastructure."
Conversion Ratio
1,000 t/day → 10-20 MW
Typical range for incineration-based plants (varies by waste calorific value and technology).
Investment per City
IDR 2-3T
Typical city-level allocation (IDR 91T ÷ 33 cities). Major cities like Jakarta may require 3-4 plants.
02. The Delivery Stack: Central Coordination + City Execution
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Feasibility must be standardized Without standardized studies, each city becomes a bespoke fight—and scaling dies in procurement friction.
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Offtake is the anchor Dispatchable power only matters if it clears interconnection, pricing, and operational standards. PR 109/2025 sets fixed USD 0.20/kWh tariff with 30-year PPAs.
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Land is the hidden bottleneck Land allocation can decide everything. WtE needs space, logistics, and durable local political support—municipalities must provide land free during construction and operation.
| Input | Process | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Mixed municipal waste | Controlled WtE conversion | Electricity + reduced landfill load |
| Sorting + logistics discipline | Feedstock stabilization | Higher uptime + more predictable economics |
03. Execution Risks: Land, Permits, ESG, and Cashflow
Risk
Community / Environmental pushback
Emission standards, location politics, and trust deficits can stall projects even with funding secured.
Risk
Municipal finance + operator incentives
PR 109/2025 eliminates tipping fees—operators rely solely on electricity revenue (USD 0.20/kWh), simplifying structure but increasing operational efficiency requirements.
Opportunity
If the operating model becomes standardized, WtE can scale like infrastructure: repeatable EPC, repeatable compliance, repeatable offtake. That's how you go from 10 pilots to 33 cities. First tender phase (Nov 2025) targets Bogor, Bekasi, Denpasar, and Yogyakarta.
Analyst Outlook
"WtE is not a technology problem—it's a governance problem. The winners will be the cities that can guarantee land, feedstock quality, and enforcement—then let operators run."